NFL Favorites Out of Control in 2005!

The favorites have had an amazing year and they refuse to let up.

2005 ATS and O/U numbers to date (thru week 13):

SU: 132-44-0 (75.0% @ 7.3 ppg)
ATS: 98-72-6 (57.6%) avg line -5.0
OU: 85-88-3 (49.1%) avg total 41.3

That's +18.8 units blindly betting ever favorite on the board. Insane numbers especially when you consider they are -169.9 units in the 8 years prior! (-21.2 avg per season). With 5 weeks left to go no other season has even come close to seing these lopsided results. So this has either been a statistical quirk or a sign of other things that went on during the offseason and regular season. I'm starting to think that the way the talent has pooled heavily on some teams during the offseason (free agency, draft) is a big factor. Other teams like the Texans are on the opposite end and when the good and bad meet it hasn't been competitive. Injuries have played a role on the lesser teams also, especially at QB. The "rule emphasis" with no contact and other things to open up the passing game might also be to blame. In the past you'd get a lesser team slow down the receivers more, change the flow of the game, and stay more competitive. Playing it legitimately now means more open receivers and they have to guard again the run differently. The team with the playmakers at QB, WR, CB, etc. then have gotten a bigger edge and ultimately the cover.

Favorites in previous regular seasons:

2004: 117-125-7 (48.3%) -20.5 units
2003: 129-118-7 (52.2%) -0.8 units
2002: 108-137-4 (44.1%) -42.7 units
2001: 114-125-7 (47.7%) -23.5 units
2000: 114-125-3 (47.7%) -23.5 units
1999: 106-122-15 (46.5%) -28.2 units
1998: 119-106-13 (52.9%) +2.4 units
1997: 100-121-13 (45.2%) -33.1 units

Just a side note for guys that use small offshore books. Alot of new sportsbooks pop up every year and may not be able to cover their losses. This has happened in the past as well. If you're using a smaller, lesser known sportsbook I'd consider getting a good chuck of my money out now and keep smaller balances to be safe. Bigger, more established books like MVP, CRIS, Pinnacle, BoDog, etc. really aren't a concern but the iffy ones might be in trouble if this continues. The strange thing is that during the last month of the season the favorites tend to do better as the cream rises to the top in a playoff push mode. November typically favors the dogs in a big way but not this year.