The Art of Sandbagging
In this short article, I’d like to analyze the feasibility
of the net scores that are posted in "friendly"
competitions. You know the scores I mean – the ones that
result in certain "lucky" golfer winning all the money –
again and again. A handicap is a funny thing. Everyone
wants a low handicap after a round has been played and while
refreshments are being consumed in the clubhouse. Hey, a
falling handicap is proof that improvement is being made. But everyone wants a high handicap as they stand at the
first tee negotiating the "arrangements" for the day’s
competition. That’s right "negotiating". A handicap should
NOT be an approximate value that is adjusted to suit the
situation. A computer program should be used to compute an
accurate value and negotiations should not be a part of the
exercise. But I’ll quit whining about sandbaggers just long
enough to do some objective analysis of extremely "good"
scores in the heat of competition. For evidence, I submit
the following table compliments of the USGA.
ODDS OF SHOOTING AN EXCEPTIONAL TOURNAMENT
SCORE from the USGA Handicap Ranges 0-5 6-12 13-21 22-30 GREATER THAN 30 Net
Differential odds odds odds odds odds 0 5:1 5:1 6:1 5:1 5:1
-1 10:1 10:1 10:1 8:1 7:1
-2 23:1 22:1 21:1 13:1 10:1
-3 57:1 51:1 43:1 23:1 15:1
-4 151:1 121:1 87:1 40:1 22:1
-5 379:1 276:1 174:1 72:1 35:1
-6 790:1 536:1 323:1 130:1 60:1
-7 2349:1 1200:1 552:1 229:1 101:1
-8 20111:1 4467:1 1138:1 382:1 185:1
-9 48219:1 27877:1 3577:1 695:1 359:1
What does this table really mean? Well, to begin, a player’s
differential is the difference between the adjusted gross
score and the course rating, multiplying the difference by
113 and dividing the resulting figure by the course slope.
Sound complicated? I guess it is a bit, but for the purposes
of a quick analysis and after removing all the jargon, it is
pretty close to a player’s score less the course par. For
example, a score of 92 on a par 72 course would be about 20,
but after converting to an adjusted gross score, using a
typical course rating and course slope, the value of 20 is
more likely to be something like 18. The harder the course,
the lower the actual differential. Now, the Net
Differential used in the USGA table, is the difference
between the differential just described and a player’s
Handicap Index. The table shows just how likely it is that a
golfer will score under his handicap in a competitive round
of golf. And guess what? – it isn’t too likely! Handicaps
are set up such that IT IS DIFFICULT FOR SOMEONE TO SHOOT TO
HIS/HER HANDICAP. It should only happen once in every 5 or 6
rounds. Any player that accomplishes this feat should be
very pleased with his/her performance. Let’s deal with an
example. The odds of a player with a Course Handicap of 14,
beating the differential by eight strokes (that is, of
shooting a net score of about 64 for a net differential of
-8) once are 1,138 to 1. Put another way, the average player
posts 21 scores a year. That means that to score this well,
assuming the Handicap Index is correct, would take 54 years
of golf to do it once. The odds of a player beating his
Course Handicap by eight strokes twice are only 14,912 to 1.
That’s 710 years of golf for the average player – a bit of a
stretch to say the least. Yet, scores like that are not
uncommon for golfers who submit an approximate handicap.
So, the next time you hear this – "Hmm, I don’t keep
accurate records but I haven’t played much lately and the
last time I did play I shot a 96 so just put me down for a
24 handicap" – you should raise the red flag. When he posts
his "career round", whip out the above table and advise him
to buy several lottery tickets on his way home from the
course because this is obviously his "lucky" day.
|